The technique of replenishing positions after being trapped in stocks, finally t

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2024-04-26 743 views 134 comments
Introduction

To attain the level of a master, one must first possess the mindset of a master.

To have the mindset of a master, naturally, one must have a rich experience of ups and downs.

The so-called master's mindset is not about being unshaken by praise or criticism, but truly having a detached view of gains and losses.

Strong-hearted individuals will all have their own beliefs, which do not come from worldly wealth but from the satisfaction that comes from within.

Chess is a game on the board, and even more so, a game of the mind.

Trading is like chess.

Chess is a game on the board, and even more so, a game of the mind.

Trading is the same.

The speculative market itself does not have winners or losers; the outcomes of wins and losses lie in the hearts of the people. But what is absolute about wins and losses? What constitutes an absolute loss, and what constitutes an absolute win? After closing a trade and making a significant profit, is that considered a win? But if you have made a timely stop-loss, only paying a minimal cost, is that considered a loss? Is your opponent the market? Other traders? Or is it yourself?The answer to this question is something the market will never give you itself. Instead of obsessing over the inherently standard-less concepts of winning and losing, it's better to focus on right and wrong. You may take a light-hearted or different understanding of winning and losing, but you cannot deceive yourself about what is right and wrong.

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Every trader who carries the burden of winning and losing moves forward, is entangled for a day, suffers for a day, hopes for a day, and fears for a day. Who has never been reincarnated in fear? Who has never been submerged in greed? Indeed, the defeated have their desolation, but those few victors, how often can they relax and enjoy their glory? In fact, it's better to say that they are the survivors rather than the victors. No one can conquer the market. The so-called victors are just those who, after the big waves have washed away the sand, have learned how to restrain their personality and adapt to the market, and have learned how to survive.

Since ancient times, those who have suddenly realized the great truth have all sighed, "The mountain is still the original mountain, and the water is still the original water." The so-called experience and baptism are just to help find the original self. After reading thousands of sails and washing away the lead, although it seems that we are still standing in the same place, what is more precious is the original intention of returning to simplicity.

From confusion and pain to ease and freedom, and then from ease and freedom back to confusion and pain, the cycle repeats. Only traders with enough resilience are qualified to obtain the peace that is not like the Nirvana of the Phoenix, and a calm and undisturbed mentality is the rarest happiness in the world.

The essence of replenishing positions

First of all, it is necessary to clarify that replenishing positions is an investment technique, a tool, not a goal. The purpose of investment is to obtain the smallest risk-adjusted return. Therefore, only when replenishing positions can help investors achieve their goals, it is valuable to use, otherwise, it should be abandoned.

The calculation formula for replenishing positions in stock trading:

(The cost price of the first purchase of stocks × the number of stocks purchased the first time + The cost price of the replenishment stocks × the number of replenishment stocks) ÷ (The number of stocks purchased the first time + The number of replenishment stocks) = The price of the stocks after replenishment

If you want to replenish at a certain price but don't know how many shares to buy, we can set the number of replenishment shares as x shares. Plug it into the formula above.

(The cost price of the first purchase of stocks × the number of stocks purchased the first time + The cost price of the replenishment stocks × x shares) ÷ (The number of stocks purchased the first time + The number of replenishment stocks) = The price of the stocks after replenishmentHere is the English translation of the provided text:

The formula for calculating the number of shares needed for averaging down is: Number of shares needed for averaging down = [Average down price × (First purchase quantity + Averaging down quantity) - (First purchase cost × First purchase quantity)] / Cost of shares bought during averaging down.

Best timing for averaging down:

1. Do not rush to average down before the market is stable. When the market is at a low level and continues to fall, it is not advisable to average down, as there is no clear rebound signal, which may turn into a counter-attack. Averaging down is generally chosen when the index is relatively low or there is a clear reversal signal. At this time, there is a large room for the market to rise, and the possibility of a continuous fall is small, making it suitable for averaging down.

2. Do not average down for weak-performing stocks. Some stocks may fall against the market trend when the market rises, and they also fall when the market falls. These stocks are relatively weak in performance and there is no need to average down. Therefore, it is necessary to choose relatively strong stocks for averaging down.

3. Do not average down for stocks that have experienced a sharp rise. Many leading stocks in various industries may experience a sharp rise when the market trend is good, and after the sharp rise, there will be a continuous decline. In this case, it is unnecessary to average down, as it will only lead to a tighter trap.

4. Seize the opportunity and it is best to average down only once. Averaging down is not the same as entering the stock market, although both involve buying. However, when entering the market, you can gradually buy in batches, but averaging down should not be done in batches. After all, funds are limited, and buying in small batches will not show results. Averaging down is a way to correct the wrong timing of buying, so it is unnecessary to average down in batches.

How to effectively average down at a low level:

Averaging down at a low level requires maintaining a good attitude and continuously improving operational skills to be prepared for and respond to various traps that may arise. Only by doing so can you control the pace of entering and exiting during the averaging down operation, and ultimately achieve the goal of being less trapped in a bear market and not missing out in a bull market.Firstly, the overall market: replenish when it stabilizes, do not replenish when it is unstable.

If the overall market is in the initial decline phase after peaking, and the market has neither stopped falling nor stabilized, replenishing positions will only increase the "trapped surface" of the chips and accelerate the "shrinkage rate" of market value.

Secondly, stock nature: replenish familiar ones, do not replenish unfamiliar ones.

If one is not familiar with the fundamentals and stock nature of the stocks involved in the replenishment, it will increase the blindness of the replenishment operation, with a lack of confidence and insufficient bottom line. Such replenishment is naturally difficult to achieve the desired results.

Thirdly, performance: replenish for good performance, do not replenish for poor performance.

Generally speaking, investors preparing to replenish positions should first choose companies with good performance for replenishment, and in principle, should not increase positions for companies with performance issues. Although some problematic companies may not rule out the possibility of a significant increase in stock prices, from a cautious perspective, it is still not advisable to participate in the replenishment of such companies.

Fourthly, trend: replenish when it starts to rise, do not replenish when it breaks through.

From a technical point of view, replenishment emphasizes the principle of safety. Therefore, for some companies that have been in an upward channel for a long time and have a relatively stable secondary market trend, one should give up replenishment when the stock price suddenly turns and even shows signs of breaking through. On the contrary, for those companies that have been falling for a long time and have poor performance, one can follow up in time when there are signs of rising.

Fifthly, rise and fall: replenish during a big fall, do not replenish during a big rise.

In terms of the timing of replenishment, it is generally chosen to buy when the related varieties fall sharply or even plummet. It should be noted that some companies with huge gains and substantial profits, the main positions are often taken by the market to sell out during the start of the market. Investors who cannot identify clearly and replenish improperly may also become unfortunate high-position receivers when such stocks fall sharply. Therefore, the premise of replenishing during a big fall and not replenishing during a big rise is that the historical increase should not be too large.Six is profit and loss: replenish when there is a positive difference, do not replenish when there is a negative difference.

For the chips previously sold, it is essential to adhere to this principle when replenishing. Replenish when the chips sold have fallen and there is a positive difference in profit. On the contrary, when the chips sold have risen and there is no opportunity to buy back at a positive difference, it is not advisable to replenish. If you really want to replenish, you must wait patiently for a period of time, and replenish at a "positive difference" after the stock price falls back.

Seven is the rhythm: replenish when the stock is pulled back, do not replenish when it is rebounding.

On the basis of meeting the above principles of replenishment, attention should also be paid to the rhythm of entering and exiting the replenishment operation. In particular, it is necessary to: absorb low during the pullback and decline of the stock to be bought, and not to grab chips during the rebound and rise.

Eight is the position: replenish when it is light, do not replenish when it is heavy.

When replenishing, it is also necessary to pay attention to the proportion of a single variety in the entire account market value, and carry out the replenishment according to the overall requirements of "controlling positions and making a good match". When the position of a single variety has not reached the upper limit, replenishment can be carried out, otherwise it is not advisable to replenish. Even if you have a unique affection for a certain variety, you must adhere to this principle.

Replenishment focuses on seizing the opportunity and striving for victory in stability:

1. Stocks with active trading volume in the near term, rising with an increase in volume, and pulling back with a decrease in volume.

2. Stocks that have fallen by 20-30% to form a phased consolidation, even in the face of a decline in the overall market, they are strong and not pulled down, indicating that there are buyers supporting them.

3. Stocks that have recently performed strongly, of course, leading stocks, capital inflow, and speculative behavior.4. The moving average transitions from a bearish to a bullish alignment, with the price at the platform support level, making it a viable choice.

 

500-Share Replenishment Method

The first method involves buying an additional 500 shares every time the price drops by 2 points, and then selling 500 shares every time it rises by 2 points.

The second method is to buy 500 shares each time the price reaches a support line, and then sell 500 shares each time it reaches the next resistance line.

The third method is to buy 500 shares every time the price drops by 0.5 yuan, and then sell 500 shares every time it rises by 0.5 yuan.

Everyone can apply these methods flexibly, adapting to changes with a constant mindset. Those with less money can buy 100 shares at a time, while those with more funds can replenish 1000 shares at a time.

Replenishment Techniques:

(I) The K-line is above the 5-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average is above the 10-day moving average

1. If the loss is not more than 3 points, there is no need to replenish. If the price does not break below the 5-day moving average on a pullback, it will rise again, providing an opportunity to break even or make a profit.2. If there are more than 3 points, you can add positions when the stock price retraces to the 5-day moving average without breaking it, thus reducing the cost to approach the 5-day moving average, which increases the probability of breaking even and making a profit.

(II) The K-line is between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, with the 5-day moving average above the 10-day moving average

1. If you are trapped and the stock price breaks below the 5-day moving average without cutting losses in time, you can add positions when it reaches the 10-day moving average, without breaking the 10-day moving average, thus reducing the cost to below the 5-day moving average. If the rebound does not break through the 5-day moving average, sell to break even; if the rebound breaks through the 5-day moving average, break even and make a profit.

2. If no operation is made, wait and watch for a clear direction before operating. If you buy between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, you can hold or increase positions after breaking through the 5-day moving average. If the stock price breaks the 10-day moving average, reduce positions or cut losses; if you do not cut losses, you can add positions after the stock price is more than 3-5 points away from the 10-day moving average, thus reducing the cost to approach below the 10-day moving average, and wait for the rebound to the 10-day moving average. If it does not break through the 10-day moving average, sell; if it breaks through, hold.

(III) The K-line is below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the 5-day moving average forming a death cross with the 10-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average below the 10-day moving average

1. If trapped and the 5-day moving average forms a death cross with the 10-day moving average, you can add positions when the stock price falls close to or breaks the 21-day moving average, as long as it does not form an effective break of the above-mentioned moving average for 3 consecutive trading days. This will reduce the cost to near below the 10-day moving average. If the rebound breaks through the 10-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average forms a golden cross with the daily moving average, you can hold for profit; if the rebound does not break through the 10-day moving average and falls back after encountering resistance, sell to break even.

2. If the stock price effectively breaks the 25-day moving average, you can add positions when it falls to the 30-34-day moving average and stabilizes, reducing the cost to near below the 10-day moving average. If the rebound breaks through the 10-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average forms a golden cross with the 10-day moving average, you can hold for profit; if the rebound encounters resistance at the 10-day moving average and falls back, sell to break even.

3. If the K-line is below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, the 5-day moving average forms a death cross with the 10-day moving average, and effectively breaks the 21-day moving average, you can add positions when the K-line stabilizes at the 55-60-day moving average, reducing the cost to near below the 10-day moving average. If the rebound breaks through the 10-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average forms a golden cross with the 10-day moving average, you can hold for profit, and decide whether to sell for profit when breaking through the 21-day moving average. If it continues to rise, hold and look at the next target, which is the pressure at the 30-34-day moving average and the 55-60-day moving average; if the rebound encounters resistance at the 10-day moving average and falls back, sell to break even.(IV) Contrarian T+0:

This is a very important operation skill that is often overlooked by many friends. Many stocks have just started to plummet, and the daily line has been severely broken. In fact, they also know that they will continue to fall, but because they are trapped, they always give up and let it go - a very serious mistake. It is clear that there will be a lower point, so why still harbor illusions instead of selling rationally first, and then buying back when the stop signal appears, calmly think: Isn't this a high sell and low buy?

The stocks to be supplemented must belong to two types:

1. Short-term technical indicators are completely adjusted in place, such as KDJ and other completely bottomed out and forming an effective reversal technical pattern, which is a good time for empty funds to gradually return to eat or supplement.

2. Stocks with obvious market player operation rhythm and intact medium and long-term trends. Although the overall trend of the current market is not good, there are many stocks in the two cities that still maintain a relatively healthy upward channel, and the adjustment to the annual line position will stop falling. Any patient and careful investor can easily copy the wave bottom at the annual line. Once it enters the previous high area, it will be resolutely sold, and the rest of the time should patiently wait for the stock price to fall.

When supplementing, attention should be paid to:

Supplement near important support positions. For example, supplement at positions such as the 60-day moving average, semi-annual line, annual line, gap, and previous breakthrough platform, which can reduce the risk of the supplement funds being trapped again.

Stop loss. Some targets in the market have a good rise for a period of time, which will attract some investors to follow the trend. If you are unfortunately followed to the top of the mountain, because the previous main force has already made enough profits, once such stocks start to fall, the decline will be relatively deep. For stocks that are more speculative in the market and start to fall, decisive stop loss can ensure our cost.The stock 601116 Sanjiang Shopping was a demon stock in the early stage. Suppose we chased it at a high position and got trapped. At the wrong points 1, 2, and 3 for replenishing positions, the stock prices all took a horizontal consolidation pattern. If you replenished positions at this time, even if it was in batches, you are still trapped inside.

For such a demon stock, the early stage has already seen a significant increase, and there is a top callback. If you replenished at the wrong point 1, then you should avoid the wrong points 2 and 3 for replenishing. How can we make the same mistake twice? There must be a reason for replenishing positions.

The advantage of replenishing positions is to reduce the holding cost, and the disadvantage is to increase the holding capital. Replenishing positions is a double-edged sword, so use it with caution.

When it comes to the skills of replenishing positions, pay attention to the following points:

1. Do not replenish positions in the early stage of a bear market.

This is a principle that stock traders understand, but what if some investors cannot distinguish the turning point between a bull and a bear market? In the larger cycle of the bear market turning to a bull market, the early stage of the bull market, the middle of the bull market, the bull market turning to a bear market, the early stage of the bear market, the middle of the bear market, and the bear market turning to a bull market, your investment strategy and trading system should be complete, and the stock selection method and profit model should be stable. Many investors, in the bull market, think they are all stock gods and believe they have reached a certain level. But once they enter the bear market or when the bull market turns to a bear market, they are at a loss. Because the stock selection method and profit model are not working. There is a simple method: if the stock price does not fall deeply, do not replenish positions. If the current price of the stock is 5% lower than the purchase price, there is no need to replenish positions, because any fluctuation in the market may be able to break even. If the current price is 20% to 30% lower than the purchase price, or even some stock prices are halved, then you can consider replenishing positions, as the space for further decline in the market is relatively limited.2. Do not add positions when the overall market is not stable

The overall market should not be supplemented when it is in a downtrend or during a consolidation rebound, because when the stock index falls further, it will drag the vast majority of individual stocks down the slope together, with only a very few stocks that are strong against the market as an exception. Before the trading volume is significantly increased, investors should still adopt a strategy of maintaining a light position and observing the market. Those with heavier positions should still reduce their positions moderately when the market is high, and make decisions after the market stabilizes. The best time to add positions is when the index is at a relatively low position or just turning up. At this time, the potential for rising is huge, and the possibility of falling is the smallest, making the addition of positions safer.

3. Do not add positions to super dark horses that have soared before

History has seen many leading stocks that, after emitting a brief dazzling light, have entered the long night of darkness, with a long down cycle, often falling deeply after falling deeply, and finding a deeper bottom after finding the bottom. Investors who average out these stocks will only be more and more trapped, and the more trapped, the more deeply trapped, and will eventually be trapped in the mud.

4. Do not add positions to weak stocks

Especially those stocks that do not rise when the overall market rises, but fall when the overall market falls, which are stocks without a warehouse. Because the purpose of adding positions is to hope to use the profits of the stocks added later to make up for the losses of the stocks that were trapped before, since this is the case, there is no need to limit oneself to add the original trapped varieties. If you add positions, you should add strong stocks, not weak stocks.

5. Grasp the timing of adding positions, strive to succeed at one time, and must not add positions in sections or in stages

Firstly, the funds of ordinary investors are limited and cannot withstand multiple averaging operations. Secondly, adding positions is a compensation for the previous wrong purchase behavior, and it should not become a second wrong transaction. The so-called step-by-step addition of positions is a defense for the careless purchase behavior, and the result of adding positions multiple times will inevitably trap oneself in an unescapable situation.Remember always:

Only engage in uptrends.

Compared to downtrends or so-called bottoms, the uptrend after a breakthrough is more considerable besides the cheaper price. Always only engage in stocks that are in an uptrend, even if they are oversold, do the right bottom. Never go against the trend. The uptrend is always the most important, and the profit is the greatest. In Gann's theory, the wave theory's third wave low is definitely more than 1.618 times higher than the first wave, so the main uptrend profit is greater, and the time comes faster. Don't be greedy for a downtrend stock because of the cheap price, the time you wait and the profit are never proportional. The future value gradually becomes the trend of the whole market. The real profit lies in the real breakthrough of the uptrend.

Always only take a heavy position in the trend you can understand.

Whether it is a rumor or a so-called friend's recommendation, the heavy position held must be a trend you can understand, do not speculate, do not fantasize, do not gamble, and be responsible for your own funds.

As ordinary investors in the stock market, we should find regular things from these traces, details, and themes. It is very important to grasp the pulse of the main force's operation. If the retail investor can be familiar with the characteristics of the main force's operation at different stages, they can see the price operation law of the main force's operation stage. In this way, the trading process of buying and selling stocks becomes much easier. So as a retail investor, you must learn the method, because the money you earn is the money that others lose, and if you want to earn other people's money, you must know more than others.

Stock trading experts must have their own trading system, and it has a stable accuracy rate. This stability comes from: personal unconsciousness, awareness, doing, and doing well. In the middle, it is due to persistence that has formed a habit, and the habit has become integrated. The whole process is an intuitive, instinctive, unskilled, and great process.

1. The situation under the impulse of instinct

The actual operation is the product of the entanglement between theory and mentality. For beginners, the real guide for operation, technology and analysis only account for a small part, most of it is the inner instinct of greed, fear, impulse, luck, and unwillingness.

Chasing the rise and killing the fall will cause repeated stop losses;Subjective speculation takes precedence over the objective market. Even when doing the opposite, people stubbornly hold on due to luck and unwillingness to admit defeat, and only cut their losses when they can no longer bear it.

These two factors are the root causes of heavy losses.

After suffering heavy losses, people tend to swing to the other extreme, being too fearful to open positions or hold orders, and being scared out of the market by the slightest change, leading to continuous stop losses and maximum compression of profits, resulting in a situation where they are stable losers but never winners.

Second, reduce variables.

The more you do, the more mistakes you make. The cost of handling fees and stop losses is not to be underestimated. Reducing the number of operations is the best choice to change the situation. Try to do as little as possible, if not at all, and if you do, do it right to the greatest extent possible. Once you open a position, try to hold it for as long as possible.

In a certain period, the market changes countless times, but if you only operate once, then all the changes in the market during this period are just one variable for you.

Understanding the significance of reducing variables is the most critical step on the road to speculation.

In a certain period, only do it once, and the mistake is at most one time. With good stop losses, it is to limit losses and let profits run, which has the possibility of stable profits.

The most difficult thing is to restrain the inner fear and impulse and forcibly wait for the market to operate, but this may be the only way to overcome the instinctive weaknesses.

Third, deliberately wait.Understanding deliberate waiting is not difficult to achieve stable profits under the protection of certain rules.

Deliberate waiting can avoid many risks and the possibility of losses, but it often misses many opportunities, and even like a roller coaster, after waiting for several rounds, facing a large profit space but only getting a small wave, which is not satisfactory.

Tragically, once the rules are abandoned, the losses will be severe, which makes one have to continue to follow the rules. Although the money is earned slowly, and it feels a bit awkward, at least it does not lose money, and it can still earn some money.

Adhering to the rules is a set of inner procedures refined through long-term experience and baptism in the market's bloody wind and rain. Because of the countless painful lessons of losing money, one dare not take a step beyond the line, unconditionally sticking to the rules, and not daring to change, even if they know in their hearts that many places must change and must move.

Not moving, you don't have to lose money, and you can still make money. Moving means losing money, and the loss is severe. But if you don't move, the level of trading cannot be broken through, and some possible profits become possible losses. The heart has to bear a huge pressure, enduring the ups and downs of the market.

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