When the diehards start to clear the warehouse.

tech
2024-05-04 428 views 53 comments
Introduction

I had tea and a chat with an old friend over the weekend, who told me he was planning to liquidate his positions and quit.

This came as quite a surprise to me.

I asked him how his performance was this year, and he said it was okay, with a few percentage points of loss, not too much.

In the recent three-year bear market, he has been slightly in the red each year. Although the losses were not significant, he felt physically and mentally exhausted, with considerable mental stress.

Coming from a veteran stock market player who has been through more than twenty years of ups and downs, this statement was somewhat unexpected.

He has experienced four cycles of bull and bear markets and still stands firm, with a firm belief in the A-share market as a die-hard bull.

Die-hard bull, in fact, has always been a term of praise, referring to those who are unwaveringly bullish regardless of the market conditions.

Some people might laugh at them for being naive or even foolish, as the market is more bearish than bullish, and die-hard bulls are destined to get hurt.

But a die-hard bull with conviction is actually happy and resilient.

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Many die-hard bulls do not feel sad in a bear market, because they have hope in their hearts, and they can always wait for the arrival of a bull market.But this time, why would a die-hard bull of over twenty years say such a thing?

Usually, I rarely encourage people to hold on a little longer, to say that the dawn is just around the corner.

Because we can't determine when the bull market will come, and in what form it will come.

Or rather, we can't confirm whether the bull market in the future will be profitable for everyone.

The bull market from 2019 to 2021 was structural, and it was a bull market where some investors did not make money.

This fully illustrates that a bull market does not necessarily mean you can make money.

It's like the market from February to May this year, there was indeed a meal-making market, but many people still lost money after a market cycle.

Making die-hard bulls despair is not only because they can't make money, but more because they feel they can't see hope.

He talked about the most is the despairing attitude towards the market.

From reducing stamp duty, regulating shareholding reduction, encouraging dividends, and strictly investigating IPOs, various favorable policies have not brought about market recovery.He feels that this market is very strange, as if the funds deliberately want to suppress this market.

When it comes to the idea that funds are only used to suppress and accumulate, he thinks that there are no incremental funds at all now.

He concluded that he doesn't even look down on his own stock market.

The reason for planning to clear the position is to calm down for a period of time and no longer foolishly hold stocks and be bullish.

This year's market is too terrifying, with many delisted stocks and many state-owned enterprises have also exploded.

The acceleration of the market's clearance is a good thing for the further development of the future market, but for retail investors, it may be a pile of white bones.

Junk stocks may explode, and high-quality stocks may also explode, so there is nothing to buy.

At the beginning of the year, he thought that high dividend stocks were still good, but in the past few months, some high dividend stocks have also fallen to pieces.

The market's belief seems to be gone, and the belief of buying more as the price falls is even more disillusioned.

The die-hard bull has begun to doubt his position, and plans to retreat in advance before a huge loss occurs.The market is shrinking, with no new capital inflow, and positive stimuli are ineffective; it's at least a garbage time now.

He also mentioned that in the current market, those who blindly shout "bullish" don't really understand the stock market.

The bearish people seem to be afraid to speak, and the atmosphere is lifeless.

Old-time stock investors used to like to read stock reviews and listen to analysts talk confidently about the future.

Nowadays, the once folk masters have become internet celebrities, and there is no great love for those who love in late autumn.

Every day, the information we are exposed to is bullish, but the results are bearish, and the psychological defense line begins to be slowly destroyed.

Bearish = down, bullish = down, external down = down, external up = down, poor performance = down, good performance = down.

This stark reality, coupled with the mental pressure and high-frequency information density, is too much even for the most bullish investors to bear.

There are many opinions in the market now, holding small investors hostage.For example, falling just before dawn.

For example, the final washout.

For example, the last drop, where confidence is very important.

Some seemingly positive words, offering hope to retail investors, will only lead them into deeper despair.

Decompressing is the first step that retail investors need to take.

The reason is simple: when under long-term high pressure, it is easy to make wrong decisions.

At this time, even clearing out the position is not wrong.

Only when you regain calmness can you make new decisions.

At worst, you can just buy back in, it won't be the case that the price soars immediately after you clear out, or soars every day.

Nor will it be the case that you are just so unlucky, selling at the lowest point.There is a saying that when the market makes you uncomfortable, enduring it will eventually lead you to see the dawn.

In fact, it's not like that. You really can't trade as you please, but when you can't control the trade with reason, first calm yourself down.

If clearing the position is a way to make you return to reason, then clear the position.

It only takes a second for retail investors to be fully invested again.

The key is at the moment, whether your reason and judgment are still there.

Passive stubbornness has no value at all, especially when it makes you suffer and you can't see hope.

The premise of trading is to stay in reason and trading decisions, not to stay in emotions.

Emotions reach the extreme value, and the market reverses, this kind of drama is quite common.

But what is said to reach the extreme here is not personal emotions, but the overall emotions of the market.

So, personal emotional suffering cannot wait for a reversal.Only when it becomes a collective market action, such as a large number of retail investors collectively liquidating, will there be significant changes in the market.

Correct one point at the end, which is a common mistake many people make: even the most bullish investors can hold cash.

Who says that the most bullish must hold stocks?

Look at it from another perspective: those who are fully invested in stocks are not the most bullish, but the biggest bears.

Because they have no more funds to buy, and all they can do is sell.

Aren't those who sell every day the most typical bears?

The market itself does not have absolute bulls and bears; the bull side refers to those who are optimistic, those who believe that the future will rise.

There is nothing wrong with being bullish, and it is also correct to believe that the market will eventually come, and the bull market will eventually come.

But the method of being bullish, the trading strategy, is very important.Holding a full position and waiting for a major bull market is acceptable, as is investing in large-cap blue-chip stocks for long-term value investing.

However, those who truly engage in value investing do not care about short-term fluctuations, do not engage in high-frequency trading, and accept the possibility of floating losses.

They will not be overwhelmed by the market, and there is no such thing as liquidating their positions unless there is an irreversible change in the fundamentals.

Retail investors must be bullish, but they should be the kind of bullish that is full of hope and happiness, rather than the kind that is tormented between hope and despair every day.

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