What is the most familiar profile of the big A we know?

It falls more often than it rises.

It's handsome for no more than 3 seconds, then it collapses.

Doing nothing but idling, with shrinking volume day after day.

Falling more and rising less, often with a thousand stocks hitting the limit down, rarely with a thousand stocks hitting the limit up.

The slogans are loud, but the rise is difficult.

......

We all fantasize that the big A can have a bull market, but we don't realize that the bull market has long become a luxury.

The main reason why the nature of the big A is hard to change is due to two points.

First, the retail investors involved have no memory.Our retail investors seem to be caught in a long-term cycle of repetition.

They do not believe when the bull market just arrives, but in the middle and late stages of the bull market, they desperately buy, buy, buy. As soon as they enter the bear market, they start to reposition, and when the market falls halfway, they start to cut their losses. After enduring the bear market until the end, they can't hold on and leave. Those who have survived the bear market also leave when the bull market is in its early stages, when the losses are smaller, because they no longer believe in the bull market.

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Every time, in the middle and late stages of the bull market, a large number of retail investors open accounts.

Every time, at the end of the bear market, a large number of retail investors cut their losses and leave.

Why does the bull and bear cycle take 5-8 years? Some people say it is the economic cycle, but in fact, it is the human nature cycle.

After more than 5 years, you don't know what you experienced 5 years ago, and many things have been forgotten, leaving no deep impression.

Even for veteran investors, if you ask them about the miserable situation in 2018, or the sharp drop in 2015, your emotions have already calmed down, and many things are no longer remembered.

Even the sharp drop from January to early February this year, many people's memories have become blurred, and they can no longer perceive that sense of despair.

Why write something and make some records? It is to record these things, to make one's impression more profound, and to avoid repeating the same mistakes.

Secondly, the participating institutions still want to cut the "leeks" (a term used to describe inexperienced investors who are easily taken advantage of).Our main force originally consisted of a group of major investors, who were popular at that time with the trend of "big investor rooms."

Later on, there emerged market manipulators, who specifically targeted retail investors for profit.

Further down the line, institutions, speculative capital, private equity, and various types of trading seats emerged.

Including insurance funds, public funds, and later on, foreign capital, all participated in this market.

In theory, large capital should engage in value investing, but in reality, they are the ones who "mow the leeks" (a metaphor for exploiting inexperienced investors).

There are also some funds that originally intended to earn slow money, to earn the value, but ultimately also joined the army of "mowing leeks."

Because slow money is not easy to earn, and they all end up as "receiving plates" (a metaphor for being left holding the bag), it's better to do short, flat, and fast operations, to earn the money first.

The market atmosphere has driven these funds to focus on the retail investor group, turning it into a hunting ground where a pack of wolves surrounds a lamb.

How can such a market grow?

The original intention of introducing more investment institutions was to make the market healthier, but now, it has only increased the number of wolves in the market, making the lambs disappear faster.Only when these institutions can change their current strategies and habits, and start to truly invest in this market, will there be a change in the overall style.

Some people say that the big A will grow, and there is no way to refute this, but the growth is too slow.

The growth referred to here is not the growth of reforms and systems, not the growth of the number of stocks, not the growth of IPOs.

The growth referred to here is the growth of the maturity of the A-share market.

Because we have a large base of retail investors, big A can grow rapidly, but the direction of growth seems to be wrong.

Our growth lies in the continuous research of the major forces on how to cut leeks, and the tools to cut leeks.

The real growth is to study how to let this stock market enter a virtuous cycle as soon as possible.

Due to the interest relationship, the funds have never considered what slow bull, and have considered more how to make quick money.

This is the key issue.For instance, take quantitative trading, which is a hallmark of a mature market. However, the quantitative trading we employ is a high-frequency trading strategy aimed at retail investors, naturally leaving no room for growth.

Including margin trading, which is also a tool that retail investors cannot operate, but institutions can utilize, it is also a way to reap profits at the expense of retail investors.

The tools used in mature markets should be tailored to mature markets, but our current market is not yet mature.

Is it necessary to pay a bloody price to make the market mature?

Perhaps it is the same everywhere; overseas mature markets have also paid a price on their way to maturity.

This is also why the proportion of retail investors in overseas markets is very low, while it was high in the early stages of the market.

The progress of the market is destined to eliminate a group of retail investors.

At this stage, the elimination rate of the retail investor group is still not enough, which means that even if there is another bull market, the outcome may still be similar.

Only when the "leeks" (a term used to describe retail investors in China) are gone will the market evolve and truly grow.In the final phase of this bear market, what I focus on the most is the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE).

The reason is also very simple: in these two sectors, the proportion of retail investors is very low, making it difficult to "mow the leeks" (a colloquial term for taking advantage of inexperienced investors).

Saying that the STAR Market is the future, and the BSE is the future, is all empty talk, all some illusory stuff.

These so-called themes and concepts are just pretexts for speculation.

In the past two years, without funds, these two directions have been continuously falling.

But if there is a bull market, it is in these directions that stories can be told, funds can be attracted, and a big bull market can be achieved.

Why pay attention is to see how a market lacking in retail trading will eventually make the market trend.

The round of speculation at the BSE at the end of last year seemed to be vigorous, but in fact, there was not much capital to take over.

Whether it is hot money or other main forces, speculation must have a good strategy, especially a strategy for exiting.

The original "mowing leeks" model is clearly more difficult in these two sectors.If the Science and Technology Innovation Board (Sci-Tech Innovation Board) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (Beijing Stock Exchange) can play out a new model, or, like mature markets, group together to speculate and push the market upwards, then the entire market situation will undergo a significant change.

20cm, 30cm, without high-frequency trading, can the market reflect its maturity? This is very crucial.

This is also the inevitable path for the market to mature and change.

Aren't retail investors always asking for T+0, to lift restrictions on price limits?

But if it is done now, it is nothing more than those institutions that use tools to quickly harvest the market, and directly collapse the market.

Only by going through a bull and bear market, to set an example, can the market structure be redefined.

This point is too important.

The changes in A-shares will eventually come, and it is after each experiment, after retail investors are bruised and battered.

I hope that the future market of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange can walk out of a new model of A-shares.

Don't always let A-shares repeat in this cycle, otherwise, it will never be able to leave 3000 points.How to put it into words?

The path is forged by those who walk it, but in the journey of stock trading, the further you go, the fewer people you'll find along the way.

Ultimately, those who survive are the true victors, and the scenery along the way, whether good or bad, is a test in itself.